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The person that publish: Google (Gu Ge) researcher Wu Jun

2002 a days of March year, a luxurious motorcade comes vast and mightily to at that time the 2nd big small mechanism of world builds Shang Kangbai (Compaq) the headquarters of the company. Triumphant Li. Feiaoli is graceful, in those days HP (Hewlett-Packard) the company’s high-key female CEO, like empress, hold in both hands month in the numerous star of a flock of greatly young officers, walk into the headquarters of Kang Bai company, the Kang Bai company that come is bought in accepting her to object sound in. This day is the honor in graceful lifetime went to Feiaoli one day of the utmost. Occupy Kang Bai’s employee to recollect, phenanthrene Ao Lina spends arrogant, extremely arrogant when tense, it is the attitude with accept a surrender accept a surrender of a conqueror completely.

3 years short hind, phenanthrene Ao Lina leaves HP cloudily. She a series of wrong decisions and she managed HP of the first giant star commonplacely to advance cliff limit. Fortunately after a year, HP is in new CEO mark. He De (Mark Hurd) below the leader, from Dai Er (DELL) the head that manufacturer of world personal computer recaptures afresh in company hand an ancient folding chair. But HP property had turned a consumption that gives priority to with home appliance into electronic company by company of a high-tech.

Although HP never has led the tide of which technology revolution, but regard Silicon Valley as the earliest company, HP witnessed the whole process that Silicon Valley develops, from do not have have, arrive from hardware software, cong Mou plants the history of HP the epitome that be being told on degree is Silicon Valley history.

1. in former days the star of Silicon Valley

Can represent the myth of Silicon Valley more than HP without any companies. 1934 year, two graduate of Stanford rest Yi is special (Hewlett) overcome with the clique special (Packard) there is this on the lawn that lies in Stanford great depression (Great Depression) the beautiful scenery after passing. Two plans run an electron company, should call Hewlett – Packard as to the name of this company or should call Packard-Hewlett, two individual decisions cast coin to see lot, end product is Hewlett won, had HP this name. But, till 1939 year this company just holds water formally, establish capital has trifling 500 dollar only, the major servicing of the company is the electronic instrument of oscillograph. Pass big fight 2 times, HP got developing. At this moment a good luck makes HP, Silicon Valley and Stanford rise with fashionable.

University of the Stanford after World War II encounters finance difficulty, stanford has the land of 8000 much acre, be equivalent to size of more than 10 Summer Palaces, and the land that it needs to use truly may be connected very one of be less than, up to now the earth that Stanford barren wears occupies one most still. But the will according to Stanford couple, the land of the university cannot sell, accordingly, cannot earn money from unused land directly. A professor that calls Teerman recalled a way later, he studied the will of Stanford carefully, did not prohibit above discovery Stanford goes out land rent. Then, stanford takes out a land, did Stanford industry garden (Stanford Industrial Park) , HP company is become garrison the first batch of companies of industrial garden. Start of HP company from here, the business got great progress, a lot of companies also as garrison Stanford industry garden. Arrived computer age, because these companies pursue the technology that concerns with semiconductor mostly, from now on here is called Silicon Valley. And Stanford university, not only spent difficulty, and rise from 60 time, become officer of world top name very quickly. HP becomes the typical delegate of Silicon Valley myth.

Come a few years, HP and Stanford are mutual guide and support, can calls yard officer cooperative example. HP obtained countless outstanding graduate from Stanford, give Stanford huge support on finance at the same time. It is namely in a long time, HP is the contributor with the biggest Stanford, include Pakete to contribute the department house that fastens to Stanford electron project.

To 90 years early days, the business of HP grows steadily, enter a peak, be like nuclear magnetic resonance from all sorts of electron instruments such as oscillograph, signal generator and costly medical treatment instrument, HP is the outstanding delegate of quality and technology. 60 time, HP enters small-sized computer field, 80 time enter laser printer and industry of ink jet printer, it still is the invention company of ink jet printer. 90 time, HP enters personal computer market. Full 50 years, the development of HP is successful. If be in the company that asks Silicon Valley is the famousest at the beginning of 90 time,be which, 10 have 10 meetings to answer HP in the individual. At that time, HP is the working company of first selection of student of a lot of Stanford. Conveniently carries, HP is one of companies that enter Chinese computer market the earliest.

90 time later period, HP experienced very not successful transition, this once brilliant Silicon Valley giant star is gradually bleak came down. Today, in the numerous company that gives in Stanford be pregnant with, everybody mixes HP and Cisco, Intel very hard Gu Ge is discharged together. If do not have miraculous happening, later its foreground still bleak.

Of course, some people can feel I the computer company with whole world top now turnover (today’s HP turnover is higher than IBM still) saying is foreground is bleak in former days chrysanthemum has bit of exaggerate sth just to scare people. But if look below two pieces of chart, see among them reason not hard.

The blue line in the graph represents the turnover of the company, red line represents net profit profit, the unit is 1 million dollars, and Huang Xian represents profit margin partly. Above this company besides when the economic depression after 2000 turnover has had outside gliding, maintain growth all the time, and net profit embellish is to rise sharply more, profit margin from the 6-8% ten years ago (expanded in the graph decuple) the 10-12% that increases to now. Actually, 2000 year because it sold a few benefit bad branch,this company turnover glides is, and profit does not have an influence. The investment according to Buffett is theoretical, the stock of this company can purchase extended hold.

Let us see this company now, before 1999, it basically is mixed the curvilinear be identical of the first company, although its profit margin is opposite inferior. But, 2000 after year, although its turnover basically is sharp growth, have small coast twice however. The gain that bad is it however ignore tall ignore low. Its profit margin did not rise not only, still drop somewhat, and be in 10% all the time. Accordingly, the gain ability of this company is suspectable. If we understand it to arrived 2002 again 2003 year because bought an a lot of companies,turnover jumps is, so the capacity that we expand to this company oneself more suspected. According to Buffett’s viewpoint, this kind of company that goes up to fall suddenly suddenly cannot be cast, because it protects not neat where,the day can break down.

Let us see truth now, this is which two companies after all. The first is general and electric GE, the 2nd is HP, this is industry of the electron on the world two the biggest companies. Consider GE cannot calculate a real IT company, so HP can sit the head of IT industry turnover an ancient folding chair. Regard the largest personal computer on the world as the manufacturer originally, HP should be the biggest person gain profit of personal computer revolution originally, but this comes nearly 20 years it goes tumbledown. Does its reason where?

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