Five factors to look for in Pennsylvania
Posted by Brittany Bohnet, Google
Elections Team
As you know, the Democratic primary is coming down to the wire, and
American voters are following
state results more closely than ever before.
We wondered what would make the difference in the tight href="http://gmodules.com/ig/creator?synd=open&url=http://primary-maps-2008.googlecode.com/svn/trunk/gadget.xml"
Pennsylvania primary—and what those results might indicate about
the rest of the primary process and the general election. So we
turned to numbers-cruncher Jim Barnes from the
href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/" id="uqw8" >National
Journal and asked him to weigh in on different sets of
demographic data. Jim helped us set up an
id="vh8f" >embeddable Google Map
factors for the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania.
As you’re watching the results from this race on April 22, Jim says
there are five things to look for—and they have interesting
implications for the general election in November:
Age. Barack Obama has generally drawn more
support from younger voters while Hillary Clinton’s base has come
from older voters. With 15.2 percent of its overall population aged
65 or older, Pennsylvania has the third biggest population of
seniors in the country after Florida and West Virginia. The
candidate who does a better job turning out this core age group
could take a big step towards winning the primary. Take a look at
the percentages of
id="dqnr" >registered Democrats by age bracket.
Democratic primary in the 2002 gubernatorial href="http://gmodules.com/ig/creator?url=http://primary-maps-2008.googlecode.com/svn/trunk/map-proto.xml&up_sidebarwidth=350&up_state=pa&up_stateselector=1&up_party=&up_partyselector=1&synd=open&w=900&h=500&title=Election Map from Google&nocache=1&border=#ffffff|3px,1px solid #999999"
race. In 2002, then-Pennsylvania State Auditor General Bob
Casey Jr. lost the Democratic gubernatorial primary to
then-Philadelphia mayor Ed Rendell, who went on to capture the
statehouse. Casey carried 57 of the state’s 67 counties in that
primary, but Rendell won the contest because of his strength in the
southeastern part of the state, specifically the four suburban and
exurban counties outside of Philadelphia—Bucks, Delaware, Chester
and Montgomery—where he carried more that 80 percent of the vote.
In the Democratic presidential race, Rendell has endorsed Clinton,
and Casey is backing Obama. Whether Rendell can help Clinton hold
down Obama’s margins in the Philadelphia area, where he is still
popular, or Casey can give Obama a boost among his political base
in western, central and northeastern Pennsylvania could be pivotal
in this primary’s outcome. Here are
id="vm4e" >county-by-county results
primary for governor.
Geography and growth. Based on the results seven
weeks ago for the primary next door in Ohio, Clinton should be
favored in the Keystone State, but Pennsylvania is more diverse
state in terms of its patterns of growth. It has rural and
metropolitan areas that are losing population, and fast-growing
exurbs. For Obama to do well, he must win not only in Philadelphia
and Pittsburgh, but also in some of the faster-growing parts of the
state. Track the
id="kc1f" >rate of population growth in Pennsylvania counties
from 2000-2007.
Race. Obama has had some difficulty winning a
significant share of support from white voters in most of the 2008
Democratic presidential primaries, but at the same time he has
dominated Clinton in regard to the African-American vote in these
contests. Here is the
id="cxvf" >racial breakdown of Pennsylvania's 67
counties.
Religion. Obama and Clinton recently participated
in a forum on issues of faith that was held at Messiah College in
Pennsylvania. So far in this primary season, Sen. Obama has done
well among Democratic primary voters who identify as Protestants
and other denominations, but lagged among Catholics. Review the
data on
id="aavb" >religious adherence by county.
As technology continues to be an influential part of this race for
President, we hope you can use this map to gain a better
understanding about which factors are causing Pennsylvania citizens
to cast their vote. Try using the data to make your own predictions
for the Pennsylvania outcome, then check if you're right by
following live results tonight on
Maps.
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