The person that publish: Google (Gu Ge) researcher Wu Jun
1.Good wind depends on force
1.Good wind depends on force (add)
2.The unique skill that develops continuously
3.Competitor
If say Microsoft is to be good at market dominant position is technical advantage, cisco is conversely, its research and development through oneself and buy, change technical advantage is market dominant position. Although wall street blocks A Er special - the boreal report of bright dispatch and Canada also calculates the competitor that became Cisco, actually these two companies with be good at of programmed control switching equipment and Cisco lie not completely same a domain, basically minatory be less than Cisco. And market prise exceeds Cisco the summation of company of equipment of other tradition communication.
The competition with real Cisco is false to having one only one true two. Let us see a holiday first, Juniper Networks. This company basically is the shadow subsidiary of Cisco, be equivalent to AMD the position to Intel. The product fixed position of Juniper is in high end, and unlike Cisco arrives as a child IP phone, arrive greatly high-end road by implement do. Although Juniper is,go up in the product and the company with the most similar Cisco, but 7% what its turnover has Cisco only, was respectively 2006 five hundred million and twenty with six hundred and forty million two hundred and sixty-one thousand six hundred and thirty-two dollars. This still was bought in Juniper with it after the company of firewall manufacturer Netscreen with likewise big dimensions, and 5% what its market prise still is less than Cisco now, mix for -589934592 dollars respectively one billion and twenty-one million four hundred and thirty-eight thousand nine hundred and seventy-six dollars. Cisco is remaining this competitor basically is the consideration that is in antitrust. Because had Juniper, cisco saved the trouble that a lot of antitrust laws bring. And, the requirement when a lot of government sectors of American and big company are being purchased must choose from inside the manufacturer of two above, accordingly, cisco for the deal existence with must allowing Juniper. Otherwise, with the cash on Cisco hand, can buy Juniper 3 times. Although Juniper alleges,the reason that oneself exist is a technology good, but, it these year of growth is not as rapidder as Cisco, because this more deep-seated reason is Cisco,must put it one horse.
The adversary with true Cisco is China is small little brother China is. Regard Chinese nation as industrial delegate, china to be in China almost widely known, the way that although major person does not care it,makes by implement product. Accordingly, here also need not the story that China of give uncecessary details is and successful experience. Regard a run by the local people as the enterprise, china a few helps that although got a government,are, but, it can develop rise it one open was decided what still rely on a private enterprise is a high starting point, efficient with employee laborious. China establish evening 4 years than Cisco for the company, antedate Juniper8 year. China it is the start when establishing very tall, a few institutes below the Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications still are in at that time and the transnational corporation such as AT&T talks second-class of the technology make over and cooperate, ren Zhengfei locates directly at that time the most advanced technology on international, and a few years short went out to have international at that time with respect to development the switching equipment of 08 programmed control of advanced level. 2006, china bed sale has arrived at 65 billion RMB, about 9 billion dollar, double be Juniper. Be worth what carry is China be sale 2/3 come from abroad, this and estate sale have high because of the empty of bubble economy very big different, because former it is real outstanding achievement. Accordingly, china to had become the competitor with main on the world Cisco.
Although at present China bed market is had rate 1/4 what have Cisco only by turnover computation, but future cannot set limit to. This not only because China to develop in order to compare the rate with rapidder Cisco, more important is China entered to pull Cisco ” China is made ” in the shadow of effect, latter is not willing this extremely. The meeting is special after we are in discuss ” China is made ” effect. Its main effect is, become to be able to be in beautiful Europe to give birth to the product that produce only originally, through can transferring for some time Japan is mixed Korea, then stay at China. The time that beautiful Europe company can profit goes to China from the United States only this paragraph of time is wrong, this paragraph of time can is as long as previously tens of year, there are a few years only now. Once a product can be made by China, so its profit space is met thin to Rangmeiou the company exits the market. Now, cisco and China bed competition is enveloped in this kind of shadow namely below. Because China mix to can have been produced Cisco compare but low-cost a lot of low end network equipment, accordingly, cisco is corresponding the profit of the product already by China support to seal. Cisco interior existence is mixed the problem with similar IBM, a few branches although photograph of wool interest rate is not lower than whole industry, but deduct the expense such as research and development, market and management, become deficit branch. Below the pressure of wall street, it must abandon the product of these small gain. Of course, cisco is mixed in high-end product the advantage on new product is China for short-term inside cannot compare, but, if a company leaves high-end product only, so it is in the monopolist that also cannot make total trade.
Making what Cisco troubles is, china it is this ” small company ” the rate that chases oneself is rapid breathtaking, because,this basically is China get neatly to compare Cisco much. In Cisco, a product appears on the market next to the test from project approving, design, development, each course is rigorous and complex, and China to be gotten relatively simply much. This kind of phenomenon not only consist in Cisco and China in bed competition, in the competition that is reflected in a lot of transnational corporation and Chinese native land company, include to be in Internet industry. It is reasonable that transnational corporation uses relatively conservative strategy, they should be accomplished only it is OK to develop more quickly than other transnational corporation, but ten million cannot make mistake, such, wall street is the most satisfactory. But, encounter the company that does not give a shop sign by convention when them, japan is previously, when the company that now is China, appear rhythm does not follow to go up.
China be a likelihood is China can mix exclusively in IT industry at present the company that the industry old on the world competes, this greatly because China manage to be mixed from company structure go up to had appeared on the market with beautiful Europe the company does not have what difference, at the same time China allow to be not to have a marvelous commander in chief. Ren Zhengfei, as an author and giant (Builder and Titan) 2005 be judged to be the 100 on the world by times weekly the most influential figure. It is the person that China regards a list of names posted up on author and giant as exclusively not only, also be the whole world is divided have not only absolutely beyond the United States one of a few people. China prevent Asian household company to want exclusively to notice is from promote declining fate.
Of course, china shake impossibly still for the near future of Cisco essential. These 9 years of profit from with Internet company arisen, had walked out of 2001 year the sale end cereal rises sharply. Here, we see Andy in - Bill’s theorematic action. In Internet industry, service company can start Gu Ge and Yahoo first, drive the outstanding achievement of network equipment company next. From the stock performance looks, arrive from 2003 last year, gu Ge’s stock takes the lead in growing, cisco and Juniper company have a lag, begin to restore since last year. We can see from inside the graph, what the stock of Cisco goes situation and cereal song be identical is first-rate.
Contrary, cisco and traditional and telegraphic course of study criterion not quite be identical. The stock that next graphs are Cisco and telegraphic line of business are big Verizon goes situation contrast
Current, the development of Internet still in the ascendant, want Cisco not to do folly only, a few years it will multiply Internet completely henceforth the 2nd times revolutionary tide develops smoothly. But, again how is in the future met?
4.Nuoweige’s theorematic fate
Those of dean of cereal song academy is gotten. Dr. Nuoweige says, have when the market of a company rate after exceeding 50% , do not count on again have in the market break up on rate time. This word is versed in in information industry is vast to circulate. This is a very simple truth, but often be ignored by leader of a few companies. In Internet bubble times, sun company was had feel ministry division of labor makes station market, market prise exceeds one billion two hundred and fifteen million seven hundred and fifty-two thousand one hundred and ninety-two dollars for a time. But, it still is expanding blindly try to develop the market further on workstation and server, result, once economy enters trough, workstation and server market contract quickly, although it holds the market share of 100% also of no help, in fact, the market prise of sun company evaporated 90% much.
Cisco company faces similar problem now. Although it held whole region by implement the market, it makes the company is in very hard also grow one times. And, because turn over rub the action of Er theorem, its turnover can not buy a few equipment because of how and constant proportional promotion. Accordingly, unless it can develop a new market, can become the next otherwise bright dispatch. Want to cast off Nuoweige’s theorematic fate, must be found and the dimensions such as original market is bigger new market even.
The cox Chambers early of Cisco against a rainy day. Cisco great strength throws VoIP (Voice On IP) , use the business that Internet calls namely, included to buy this domain to have the Linksys company of fame quite. In the meantime, cisco marchs storage equipment and service business, and also bought a few corresponding companies, the VoIP strategy that is it makes support by coordinated action. Previously, in phone times, the information communication on the world basically relies on line, everybody or the family is in the identifier of that times is telephone number. Of course farfetched agitate is not together these line, pass switching equipment connective however. Arrived Internet times, more information disseminate through Internet, what no less than corresponds like advanced face speech and mirror in figure of data traffic contrast in that way. At this moment, the expression of everybody and family is IP address, of course, network road by implement the position that replaced switching equipment of original programmed control. Cisco also replaced the position of bright dispatch. In fact, because the bandwidth of Internet exceeded the bandwidth of past telephone network far now, accordingly, deliver speech through Internet completely possible. Traditional telephone network does not need on such worlds, everything can undertake through Internet. Cisco him company has used IP phone to come for years, but gain ground to still need time all over the world. In the meantime, issue of a few technologies wants to solve, for instance the phone uploads sowed delay time problem through Internet, although this problem as network speed faster and faster and becoming is not apparent. Skype company had provided the telephone service of the whole world that passes Internet freely, but with the true substituent that Cisco should do the IP phone of traditional telephone call still has very big difference. Skype wraps can seasonable ground to hand opposite party to assure data of speech of a phone, it can duplicate this packets many line that much portion passes Internet to go up undertakes conveying, this kind of overbearing practice efficiency actually very low, the transmission efficiency that compares traditional telephone call is low still much. It is Skype abused Internet to be nodded freely so only, it is to let the telegraphic company of laid Internet covert actually buy sheet for it.
The phone can upload in Internet, cable television also can travel through Internet. In fact, a lot of families had used cable television, its circuitry can be used completely at call and getting online, should undertake of course a few transform. This among them commercial difficulty compares a technology to go up big, because these couplet enter domestic cable,control lives in hand of finite TV company. But anyway, tell cable of a high speed to be handled completely from the technology TV, phone and get online 3 things, all these comes true through be similar to the technology of VoIP. Let us might as well the distant view that will have a look at Cisco to be designed for everybody. Home Zhang is a 4 typical home, the son of the high school on in the evening should watch Chinese olive ball game, but the ball game when he comes home had begun half hours, but he still wants to look from the beginning. The daughter of elementary school should watch the cartoon film that the closest TV station of classmate introduction won’t broadcast today on, parents should look play to looked yesterday the film of the Sipierbaige of the half. These are impracticable before the requirement. Good now, the son set the plan of the match before the television, the plan that the TV station presses evening half hours transmits rugger contest technically for him. The daughter searchs that cartoon film before the television, chose to broadcast pushbutton on the remote controller, begin to broadcast her to think the cartoon that look in the television. There are a few afraid appearances among, she used speed function to jump, she must cover previously these pictures such as the eye go. When parents sees a movie, look from yesterday the place of the half begins, a telephone call of the friend was received among, they let the film stop 5 minutes, after 5 minutes, the place that the TV station interrupts from them continues to broadcast. Zhang Jiayi classics is very long did not buy DVD, because they think the thing that see has on Internet, and the effect that video effect is a cinema completely. When Home Zhang picks up the telephone, did not use the sort of present fixed phone, adopt the network way in the home with earphone of a blue tooth however by implement of implementation. After seeing the movie, the photograph of the element of 100 Zhang Yiqian every phenomenon that the daughter should go vacationing her is passed to the net to be shared with classmates, she waited for dichotomy bell to be finished only. This thing, need not think before, mix as a result of the flying development of broadband Internet now the occurrence of VoIP and similar technique, answer in 10 years of less than this can become reality. The speed that gets online when every family is achieved now 100 times of DSL, namely per sec. 100 Mbps, so every family can watch movie of 3 high definition at the same time, every need the bandwidth of 25 Mbps, remnant comes down 1/4 can use at the phone, the Internet that browse, play game, upload next passing the photograph is waited a moment. Because every have his IP, because this medium company is OK,offer different program for every family according to IP. As a result of the alternant sex of Internet, the user is OK oneself control video section purpose to broadcast, a movies will not look today tomorrow, it is OK that leakage drops a paragraph of news rebroadcast, a match because time is improper can fill later look. These programs do not need to record come down to be put in him home, put on network memory server however.
In a such broadband Internet worlds, all communications come true through X On IP. So what part does Cisco act amid again? Above all, it has the demand of the product to be able to continue to grow, and, a few the market is not big still now products of Cisco for instance the network stores server, demand will increase greatly. Because want to provide recreational service of the family through Internet technology, must be the content memory of movie and TV on the server of a few memory of this locality.
On VoIP and network movie and TV transmits device sphere, cisco becomes the leading sheep of this market the most likely, such it can be after Internet tide, build again on the tide of broadband communication revolution. Toward more long-term look, if Cisco can take the way of IBM, wash out the low end with its small gain ceaselessly namely product, allow the market actively China to wait ” China is made ” company, develop the growing site of new field conservatively, accomplish likely long fill do not decline. Otherwise, if its market with one adherence and existing meaning, cast off Nuoweige’s theorematic fate very hard, will become the next bright dispatch.
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